Word on the Street — Late September 2026
Word on the street this month: houses are sitting, but we did see a tiny uptick in activity at the end of September. The market is still very slow overall — the good news is that it's a buyer's market right now. We're consistently seeing buyer's price reductions and sellers covering closing costs, because sellers around the lake are motivated to sell.
Source: Parcl Labs Motivated Seller Index, shared by Tristan Ahumada / Lab Coat Agents via Big News in Real Estate, Facebook (Aug 20, 2026).
Here's what that chart means for both sides of the table. Parcl Labs scores every U.S. metro on how eager local sellers are to make a deal, on a scale of zero (holding firm on price) to ten (fire sale). As of late August 2026, Sherman, TX posted the single highest motivated-seller score of any market in the country — 7.49 out of 10, ahead of Kingsport, TN, Austin, San Antonio, and Dallas, and well above the 5.45 national average. Four of the five most motivated seller markets in America right now are in Texas.
For sellers: this is a signal to price at or near recent comps from day one. Parcl Labs notes that over half of sellers in these highly motivated Texas metros have already cut their asking price at least once — the longer a home sits at an unrealistic number, the more it ends up chasing the market down instead of getting ahead of it.
For buyers: a high motivated-seller score is good news. It means more sellers are willing to negotiate on price, cover a chunk of your closing costs, or fund a rate buydown to get a deal done. Sherman topping this list nationally lines up exactly with what we're seeing on the ground locally — steady price reductions and sellers covering buyer closing costs to get homes to the closing table.
As of September 2026, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate sits near 7% nationally after climbing to a one-year high, home inventory across Texas has grown to a six-year high in some markets even as it tightens locally, and home values across the Lake Texoma region — spanning Grayson County, TX, Cooke County, TX, Bryan County, OK, and Marshall County, OK — have softened modestly year-over-year, giving buyers more negotiating room while sellers who price realistically are still closing deals. Here is what the numbers show heading into the fourth quarter, and what they mean if you are buying or selling around the lake.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Where Rates Stand This Fall
Mortgage rates have been on a rollercoaster in 2026. After trending down through the final months of 2025 on the back of Federal Reserve rate cuts, 30-year fixed rates settled into the mid-6% range for much of the first half of 2026. Since late summer, rates have climbed again, with Freddie Mac and Mortgage Bankers Association data both showing the average 30-year fixed rate near 6.97% to 7.08% in mid-September 2026 — the highest level in roughly a year, driven by elevated Treasury yields and persistent inflation concerns. Mortgage applications have pulled back slightly as a result, a pattern that typically shows up in local markets a month or two later.
For Texoma buyers, that means locking a rate is once again a bigger factor in monthly payment math than it was earlier this year. Talking with a lender about rate buydowns, adjustable-rate options, or seller-paid concessions is worth doing before you start touring homes in Sherman, TX, Denison, TX, or Durant, OK.
Inventory and Days on Market Across Texoma
Statewide, Texas inventory tells a mixed story. Texas had roughly 180,500 homes for sale in August 2026, down about 3.2% from a year earlier, while newly listed homes also dipped slightly. At the same time, national reporting notes total homes for sale hitting a six-year high, which is giving buyers more leverage to negotiate in many metro areas even where local supply is tighter. The statewide median time on market held steady at about 68 days, essentially flat compared to last year — a sign the market has settled into a more balanced, less frantic pace than the ultra-low-inventory years of 2021-2022.
Grayson County, TX and Cooke County, TX
County-level MLS data for Grayson County, TX and Cooke County, TX is not published as granularly as statewide figures, but local trends generally track — and often lag slightly behind — broader North Texas patterns. Extrapolating from state and DFW-metro data, expect days-on-market in the 60-80 day range for typical resale homes in Sherman and Denison, with well-priced homes near the lake or in move-in-ready condition moving faster, and dated or overpriced listings sitting longer. Inventory in both counties has grown modestly compared to the tight conditions of a few years ago, giving buyers more homes to compare before making an offer.
Bryan County, OK and Marshall County, OK
On the Oklahoma side, Bryan County, OK and Marshall County, OK continue to see steady interest from Texas buyers relocating for lower property taxes and lakefront value, a trend we track closely in our Cost of Living in Denison vs. Durant: 2026 Update. Precise county-level days-on-market figures are limited in public reporting, but city-level data out of Durant, OK suggests inventory has loosened compared to the peak-demand years, with more choice for buyers shopping cabins, acreage, and lakefront property without the bidding-war urgency of 2021-2022.
City-by-City Market Snapshot: Sherman, Denison & Durant
Here's how the three cities we work in most stack up, pulled straight from Realtor.com's local market data as of September 2026. Click through to any city below for the full, continuously updated report.
Sherman, TX
| Median Listing Price | $299,000 (-4.84% YoY, -1.63% MoM) |
| Median Days on Market | 70 days (-7.43% YoY) |
| Sale-to-List Ratio | 98% (homes selling ~1.81% below asking) |
| Active Listings | 958 (+11.28% YoY) |
| Market Type | Buyer's market |
See the full Sherman, TX market report on Realtor.com →
Denison, TX
| Median Listing Price | $229,900 (-11.24% YoY, 0% MoM) |
| Median Days on Market | 77 days (-1.21% YoY) |
| Sale-to-List Ratio | 97% (homes selling ~3.15% below asking) |
| Active Listings | 513 (-9.85% YoY) |
| Market Type | Buyer's market |
See the full Denison, TX market report on Realtor.com →
Durant, OK
| Median Listing Price | $288,503 (+1.46% YoY, -0.09% MoM) |
| Median Days on Market | 62 days (-10.53% YoY) |
| Sale-to-List Ratio | 98% (homes selling ~2.07% below asking) |
| Active Listings | 259 (-2.97% YoY) |
| Market Type | Buyer's market |
See the full Durant, OK market report on Realtor.com →
Home Price Trends in the Texoma Region
Texoma home prices have cooled slightly from their post-pandemic peaks, mirroring the statewide Texas trend of a 1.3% year-over-year median price decline. Zillow's most recent tracked home values show Sherman, TX at roughly $252,800 (down about 6.3% year-over-year), Denison, TX at roughly $222,150 (down about 5.5% year-over-year), and Durant, OK at roughly $224,350 (down slightly, less than 1% year-over-year). These figures line up with what we're seeing on the ground: after several years of rapid appreciation, the Lake Texoma real estate market has moved into a correction-and-stabilization phase rather than a crash, with well-maintained homes and true waterfront property holding value far better than average inland resale stock. For a deeper look at how this plays out specifically in Denison, see our Denison Real Estate Market Trends report.
Land and acreage near the lake remain a bright spot in an otherwise softening market, particularly for buyers who missed the window on developed lakefront homes. Our guide on How to Buy Land Near Lake Texoma walks through what to know before purchasing raw or partially developed parcels in this environment.
What This Means for Buyers
Higher mortgage rates combined with softer prices create a real trade-off this fall. Your purchasing power per dollar of monthly payment is squeezed by the roughly 7% rate environment, but you have more inventory, more negotiating leverage, and less competition than in recent years. Sellers across Grayson County and Bryan County are more open to concessions — rate buydowns, closing cost credits, and repair requests — than they were during the 2021-2022 boom. If you can qualify comfortably at today's rates and plan to refinance if rates drop later, this is a reasonable window to buy without racing the market.
What This Means for Sellers
Sellers need to recalibrate expectations set during the peak years. Pricing at or near recent comparable sales — not last year's highs — is critical to avoid sitting on the market past the 60-80 day regional average. Homes that are clean, updated, and priced accurately are still selling; overpriced listings are the ones stacking up days on market and eventually chasing the price down. Staging, professional photography, and flexibility on buyer financing requests (like rate buydown credits) can meaningfully shorten your time to close in this more balanced market.
Every micro-market around the lake — from downtown Sherman to the shoreline in Marshall County — is behaving a little differently right now, and national or statewide averages only tell part of the story. If you're weighing a purchase or sale in the Texoma region this fall, reach out to Brian & Jonelle Allen for a personalized, up-to-date read on your specific neighborhood, price point, and timeline — we track these numbers locally, month over month, so you don't have to guess.
